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zerohedge.com: экономические диаграммы
May. 5th, 2013 09:00 am18.04.2013
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating
18.04.2013
which miners and oil producers were most 'at risk' of generating negative cash flows at current and long-term prices. Goldman Sachs looks at 40 oil producers and 25 gold mines to create a complete 'cost curve' in terms of the best indication of what it actually costs to keep operations running. It is quite apparent that ~$85 Crude and ~$1150 Gold are key to the ongoing support for these industries.
( Read more... )
2012 Costs
2015 (estimated costs)
Oil Cost Curve
Rising prices at the pump in recent years reflect a very real dynamic for oil producers: crude oil is becoming more capital intensive to extract and is coming from ever-more improbable sources. Until the successful development of liquids-rich shale in the US it was thought that the panacea for rising crude oil demand lay in the Canadian oil sands, a vast tract of bitumen reserves in Alberta, recovered either by intensive strip mining or by injecting steam into the ground to soften and release the oil. The drawback was that both processes required enormous capital outlay, such that the most marginal of the projects needed oil prices upwards of US$120/bl to make economic sense. As a result, the world could either get used to paying more for its crude oil, or figure out who would go without.
In the event, this argument was curtailed by the financial crisis, and we saw only a few months of demand-rationing oil price levels in 2008 before other factors took over. The correction of the oil price first down to the marginal cash cost of production of c.US$35/bl (at which point some oil sands production was physically shut down) and subsequently back up to US$100/bl+ reflects the fact that the fully-loaded cost of oil production, including capex, opex, transport tariffs, and a commercial return, remains high in historical terms, and that capital intensity has played a major part in the shift.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/soft-cost-curves-hard-assets-where-cash-flow-hits-road
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating
18.04.2013
which miners and oil producers were most 'at risk' of generating negative cash flows at current and long-term prices. Goldman Sachs looks at 40 oil producers and 25 gold mines to create a complete 'cost curve' in terms of the best indication of what it actually costs to keep operations running. It is quite apparent that ~$85 Crude and ~$1150 Gold are key to the ongoing support for these industries.
( Read more... )
2012 Costs
2015 (estimated costs)
Oil Cost Curve
Rising prices at the pump in recent years reflect a very real dynamic for oil producers: crude oil is becoming more capital intensive to extract and is coming from ever-more improbable sources. Until the successful development of liquids-rich shale in the US it was thought that the panacea for rising crude oil demand lay in the Canadian oil sands, a vast tract of bitumen reserves in Alberta, recovered either by intensive strip mining or by injecting steam into the ground to soften and release the oil. The drawback was that both processes required enormous capital outlay, such that the most marginal of the projects needed oil prices upwards of US$120/bl to make economic sense. As a result, the world could either get used to paying more for its crude oil, or figure out who would go without.
In the event, this argument was curtailed by the financial crisis, and we saw only a few months of demand-rationing oil price levels in 2008 before other factors took over. The correction of the oil price first down to the marginal cash cost of production of c.US$35/bl (at which point some oil sands production was physically shut down) and subsequently back up to US$100/bl+ reflects the fact that the fully-loaded cost of oil production, including capex, opex, transport tariffs, and a commercial return, remains high in historical terms, and that capital intensity has played a major part in the shift.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/soft-cost-curves-hard-assets-where-cash-flow-hits-road
