Июнь 2012
Бюджет Саудовской Аравии и пределы снижения цены нефти( Read more... )Январь 2012
Saudi Arabia’s budget in 2012Thanks to record high oil prices last year Saudi Arabia enjoyed its second highest fiscal surplus ever, having budgeted for a deficit of -$11bn.
Expenditure increased by 38% over the budgeted amount, but revenues soared by 105% against budget.
The Kingdom expects the state budget in 2012 to produce a small surplus, based on revenues down by 37% over actual income in 2011 and expenditure down by 14% against 2011’s spending.
The CGES agrees that a small surplus is likely to be generated, but from much higher levels of both revenue and expenditure.
State spending in the Kingdom has not declined since 2002, averaging annual rates of growth of 14% since then, hence our assumption that expenditure in 2012 will rise by 15%.
As for revenues, although we concur that earnings will be down on 2011, they will reach $250bn based on an OPEC basket price of $97.4.bbl and Saudi oil production averaging 8.8 mbpd.
Saudi Arabia's target oil price in 2011Given the Saudi government's likely fiscal expenditures and nonoil income this year it is a straightforward matter to find the various oil prices needed by the Kingdom to cover its different forms of expenditure, assuming its oil production will average 9.13 mbpd and its NGL exports rise to 0.62 mbpd.
To cover its current spending in 2011, after subtracting its projected non-oil and investment income, Saudi Arabia needs an OPEC basket price of $53/bbl (see Table 5 above).
Adding in $70bn of capital expenditure (broken down into $22bn for defence, $18bn for education and manpower, $13bn for infrastructure, water, etc…) requires a basket price of $79/bbl.
An OPEC basket price of $83/bbl would enable the Kingdom to cover both its current and capital expenditure in 2011, and at the same time have a contingency reserve of $10 billion for all eventualities.
The current CGES view is that the OPEC basket is likely to average $100/bbl in 2011, which implies that Saudi production of 9.13 mbpd during the year ought to yield enough income to generate a surplus of $55bn for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, more than double last year's surplus.
Июнь 2012
Saudi Arabia Achieving $100 Oil Signals Output ReversalSaudi Arabia is poised to rein in oil sales after it achieved a $100-a-barrel target by cutting the price of its crude and pumping at the highest rate in at least three decades.
The world’s biggest crude exporter started to scale back shipments this month, Vienna-based researcher JBC Energy GmbH said, citing tanker fixtures. Three days ago the desert kingdom raised the July official selling price to Asia of its main crude grade, Arab Light, for the first time in three months, another sign that it is reducing production, according to the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London.
Saudi Arabia has been trying to lower the international price of oil to about $100 as slowing global economic growth counters concern of a supply shortage following a ban by western nations on imports from Iran.
Brent crude, used to price more than half the world’s oil, fell to a low of $95.63 a barrel on June 4 amid Europe’s debt crisis, brimming supplies and weaker- than-expected Chinese manufacturing. Prices were as high as $128.40 in March.
“The downward pressure on prices will continue until they reduce supply,” said Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at CGES, which predicted last month that the Saudis would attain their $100 target. “OPEC’s doves have said $100 is their target, so they have to defend it.”
Май 2012
Oil price down 17% thanks to Saudi productionDated Brent prices have fallen by $20/bbl (17%) from their recent peak and will fall further, unless there is a very significant disruption to Iran’s crude oil exports once the EU’s sanctions come into full effect in July.
Saudi Arabia has clearly taken a decision that it is more important to avoid a damaging price spike than it is to prevent oil prices from falling below its preferred level of $100/bbl.
Saudi Arabia is rightly concerned that another price spike this year, triggered by the loss of Iranian oil exports due to sanctions, would tip global oil demand growth back into negative territory, an outcome that it wants to avoid at almost any cost.
The EU’s embargo on oil imports from Iran, announced six months in advance of its implementation, has already had an impact on the country’s oil exports and US sanctions on the Iranian banking sector have extended the impact to its Asian customers.
Iran’s oil production has already fallen by around 10% since the end of last year, according to assessments published by the CGES, and exports are thought to have fallen even further.
In order to ensure that there is enough oil readily available to meet the impending drop in Iranian exports, Saudi Arabia has boosted its production to almost 10 mbpd ahead of the full implementation of the EU’s embargo.
The Kingdom is clearly taking a precautionary stance amid huge uncertainty on the impact of the sanctions and it would rather see too much oil available than too little.
For now, its fears of the damaging impact on oil demand of a price spike caused by a supply disruption outweigh its worries that too much oil will weaken prices.
Saudi Arabia can well afford a period in which prices dip below its target level of $100/bbl (we think it can live with $87/bbl) and it is a price the Kingdom seems willing to pay to avoid a repeat of the 2008 price spike and the subsequent crash.
Декабрь 2011
Saudi Arabia’s oil production increased by 830,000 bpd between January and November 2011, Kuwait’s rose by nearly 400,000 bpd and the UAE’s was up by 200,000 bpd.Май 2012
Dated Brent likely to average $111/bbl in 2012
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Зачем гадать о ценах на нефть, если можно посмотреть, какая цена заложена в бюджет Саудовской Аравии.
Реальные цены могут, конечно, отлисаться от прогноза, как, например, в 2008 г., но тогда были "обстоятельства непреодолимой силы" в виде мирового кризиса, а не планомерная акция как сейчас против Ирана и, возможно, России, в которой участвует Саудовская Аравия.
Цены могут колебаться в течение года относительно средней ожидаемой.
Высчитывать цену, исходя из максимального ее снижения и отсутствия небольшого профицита, не обосновано, покольку выручить деньги от продажи treasuries Саудовской Аравии не позволят, как и Японии в марте 2011 г. после землятресения, цунами и аварии на Фукусиме.
О долговом рынке
http://spydell.livejournal.com/442377.htmlhttp://spydell.livejournal.com/442874.htmlЕсть прогноз на 111$/баррель в 2012 г., можно ожидать ниже в интервале 97-105$/баррель, но все равно, цена в 115 $/баррель, как в
Сценарных условиях для формирования вариантов прогноза социально-экономического развития в 2013-2015
представляется несколько завышенной, 111$/баррель в 2012 г. кажется более обоснованной.
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